by Remzi » Fri Aug 07, 2015 1:28 am
The 2015 Draft Day Manifesto
The first thing you should know is that Thomas Wilson's last name isn't actually Wilson. It has been changed to provide anonymity, but I bring it up because I want to assure you that everything else you are about to read is true.
Thomas is the commissioner of a 12-team re-draft league based in Indiana, formed by school buddies in 2008. It's a job he takes seriously. As he explains, "Hundreds of emails a week, even during the offseason ... it's a real league." It's a league filled with traditions, including the fact that the winner gets to choose the draft location the next year. As champion the year of our story, Thomas had chosen a remote cabin in the woods.
I get it, Thomas. Draft day is serious business. Can't be distracted by anything else that weekend. Not other friends, not romantic partners, not one of your league members in jail.
Wait, what?
"Yeah," Thomas said, "a few months before the draft, we found out that one of our members got into a bit of a legal scuffle. He was pleading guilty to a charge that carried with it a three-year mandatory minimum sentence."
OK, Thomas, that's not a "bit of a legal scuffle." A bit of a legal scuffle is a speeding ticket. A bit of a legal scuffle is a cop yelling at you and threatening to arrest you. A bit of a legal scuffle is trying to figure out how to tell your wife you watched two episodes of "Big Brother" without her and then deleted them. (She doesn't read my column, you guys, so mum's the word, OK?)
"Well," Thomas continued, "'Either way, there was a fundamental misunderstanding over the legality of certain controlled substances and, most importantly, Guy's (not his real name) sentencing hearing was the day before our draft."
Well.
A meeting was quickly called of the Council of Elders, a subgroup within the league, to decide on a course of action. Obviously, they had to notify the league in a tactful way, and a modification of the constitution began to allow for caretaker managers.
But Thomas, well, Thomas is one of us. A fantasy football player. A commish. A fanatic.
And he did what we all do. What you're doing right now. He researched. And researched. And researched some more. Poring over the state's Department of Corrections website to see how lineup changes could possibly be made from jail. Weekly phone calls? Letters? Do they get email access?
But Thomas didn't stop there. No, he kept reading. Every inch of the website, every piece of information he could find. This was his league mate he was talking about. This was his draft day. And he is the commissioner.
It took a while, but Thomas found out that the three-year sentence for this crime could actually be served in any way the judge sees fit. Three years in jail, two years in jail and one year home detention ... completely up to the judge's discretion.
So ... you're saying there's a chance?
"Yeah," Thomas continued, "But a slim one. The prosecutors were pushing hard for all jail time, and even his own lawyer was saying he's getting at least a year in the slammer. No way around it."
But you don't become the commissioner of a league by taking the easy way out. Or taking "no" at face value. So Thomas knew that if he wanted, he could write a letter to the judge on Guy's behalf, asking for leniency. If the judge wants, he can consider such letters in making his/her decision.
It's not an easy letter to write, of course. It could wind up in public record with his name on it, and it's a long shot.
But, as Thomas says: "Of course I had to write the letter. Not because he's a good guy who just screwed up, although that's true. Not because some of our country's laws are screwed up, although they are. No, I had to write the letter because I'm the commissioner, and this incarceration was going to totally screw up our league."
So Thomas wrote the letter. His wife is a public defender, so she gave Thomas strategic advice on exactly what kind of language to use. Writing and rewriting, making sure every word was carefully considered and every phrase was strong, Thomas did draft after draft. "I poured my soul onto that page," he remembers.
Draft weekend comes soon and the league has gathered, ratifying the new constitution that involved a convoluted autodraft scheme for Guy when suddenly, an email pops up to the league.
"I'm coming to the draft. I need a ride."
It was Guy!
He had gotten three years' home detention, no jail time. And the detention wouldn't start for another two weeks, so he could attend the draft in person.
And are you ready for this?
The judge, in rendering his lenient judgment, read Thomas' entire letter from the bench as justification!
"When Guy got to the cabin, he told us that as soon the hearing was over, his parents walked up, embraced him and then had one simple question, uttered with a bewildered sense of urgency: 'Who wrote that letter? He said he knew you and your family, and we've never even heard of him.'"
"Oh him? He's my fantasy football commissioner."
You're damn right he is.
And for his part, Thomas doesn't think he lied about the part that referenced family. "After exchanging hundreds of emails a week for half a decade, including some of the most personally offensive insults imaginable, I truly believe there is no closer social relationship than that forged by a proper fantasy league."
Well said, Thomas, and it brings us meandering slowly into the 17th edition of the Draft Day Manifesto. Between the preparation, the location, the traditions, the picking of the order, the actual selections and everything else that goes into it, there's no day more important than draft day. Even if you're in jail.
And so, we're here to once again get you ready for the day that my very first commissioner, Don Smith, would always remark, "It's only the best day of the year."
So sit back. Put your feet up. May I take your drink order? Because we are going to be here a while. As always, the Manifesto has something for everyone. Some basic stuff for beginners, some advanced theory for longtime players and at least one new joke for my editor.
Some things about the Manifesto remain unchanged. It's long, there's some blatant promotion for my New York Times best-selling book "Fantasy Life" (now available as a free app!), and it starts with the secret to winning fantasy football.
At a fundamental level, fantasy football is all about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis. That's it. That simple. Everything leads back to that. Everything.
A year ago, everyone was talking about rookie wide receivers, but no one thought the guy who had missed the preseason with a hammy injury and didn't get on the field until game No. 5 would put up the second-best fantasy season by a rookie wideout in NFL history ... in just 12 games. That a third-string running back from the Broncos would outscore LeSean McCoy; that Joe Flacco would finish outside the top 12 in fantasy scoring among QBs but still score more than Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler. Or that pretty much everyone would outscore a healthy Adrian Peterson.
You can't predict the future. I definitely can't predict the future. No one can predict the future. Those who try to are doomed to fail. So all you can do is play the odds. Put yourself in the best position to win, hope for the best and let the chips fall where they may. Do that and you won't win every single time, but you will more often than not. That's true in life as well.
What follows now are 15 thoughts on how to put yourself in the best possible position to win.
[b]The 2015 Draft Day Manifesto[/b]
The first thing you should know is that Thomas Wilson's last name isn't actually Wilson. It has been changed to provide anonymity, but I bring it up because I want to assure you that everything else you are about to read is true.
Thomas is the commissioner of a 12-team re-draft league based in Indiana, formed by school buddies in 2008. It's a job he takes seriously. As he explains, "Hundreds of emails a week, even during the offseason ... it's a real league." It's a league filled with traditions, including the fact that the winner gets to choose the draft location the next year. As champion the year of our story, Thomas had chosen a remote cabin in the woods.
I get it, Thomas. Draft day is serious business. Can't be distracted by anything else that weekend. Not other friends, not romantic partners, not one of your league members in jail.
Wait, what?
"Yeah," Thomas said, "a few months before the draft, we found out that one of our members got into a bit of a legal scuffle. He was pleading guilty to a charge that carried with it a three-year mandatory minimum sentence."
OK, Thomas, that's not a "bit of a legal scuffle." A bit of a legal scuffle is a speeding ticket. A bit of a legal scuffle is a cop yelling at you and threatening to arrest you. A bit of a legal scuffle is trying to figure out how to tell your wife you watched two episodes of "Big Brother" without her and then deleted them. (She doesn't read my column, you guys, so mum's the word, OK?)
"Well," Thomas continued, "'Either way, there was a fundamental misunderstanding over the legality of certain controlled substances and, most importantly, Guy's (not his real name) sentencing hearing was the day before our draft."
Well.
A meeting was quickly called of the Council of Elders, a subgroup within the league, to decide on a course of action. Obviously, they had to notify the league in a tactful way, and a modification of the constitution began to allow for caretaker managers.
But Thomas, well, Thomas is one of us. A fantasy football player. A commish. A fanatic.
And he did what we all do. What you're doing right now. He researched. And researched. And researched some more. Poring over the state's Department of Corrections website to see how lineup changes could possibly be made from jail. Weekly phone calls? Letters? Do they get email access?
But Thomas didn't stop there. No, he kept reading. Every inch of the website, every piece of information he could find. This was his league mate he was talking about. This was his draft day. And he is the commissioner.
It took a while, but Thomas found out that the three-year sentence for this crime could actually be served in any way the judge sees fit. Three years in jail, two years in jail and one year home detention ... completely up to the judge's discretion.
So ... you're saying there's a chance?
"Yeah," Thomas continued, "But a slim one. The prosecutors were pushing hard for all jail time, and even his own lawyer was saying he's getting at least a year in the slammer. No way around it."
But you don't become the commissioner of a league by taking the easy way out. Or taking "no" at face value. So Thomas knew that if he wanted, he could write a letter to the judge on Guy's behalf, asking for leniency. If the judge wants, he can consider such letters in making his/her decision.
It's not an easy letter to write, of course. It could wind up in public record with his name on it, and it's a long shot.
But, as Thomas says: "Of course I had to write the letter. Not because he's a good guy who just screwed up, although that's true. Not because some of our country's laws are screwed up, although they are. No, I had to write the letter because I'm the commissioner, and this incarceration was going to totally screw up our league."
So Thomas wrote the letter. His wife is a public defender, so she gave Thomas strategic advice on exactly what kind of language to use. Writing and rewriting, making sure every word was carefully considered and every phrase was strong, Thomas did draft after draft. "I poured my soul onto that page," he remembers.
Draft weekend comes soon and the league has gathered, ratifying the new constitution that involved a convoluted autodraft scheme for Guy when suddenly, an email pops up to the league.
"I'm coming to the draft. I need a ride."
It was Guy!
He had gotten three years' home detention, no jail time. And the detention wouldn't start for another two weeks, so he could attend the draft in person.
And are you ready for this?
The judge, in rendering his lenient judgment, read Thomas' entire letter from the bench as justification!
"When Guy got to the cabin, he told us that as soon the hearing was over, his parents walked up, embraced him and then had one simple question, uttered with a bewildered sense of urgency: 'Who wrote that letter? He said he knew you and your family, and we've never even heard of him.'"
"Oh him? He's my fantasy football commissioner."
You're damn right he is.
And for his part, Thomas doesn't think he lied about the part that referenced family. "After exchanging hundreds of emails a week for half a decade, including some of the most personally offensive insults imaginable, I truly believe there is no closer social relationship than that forged by a proper fantasy league."
Well said, Thomas, and it brings us meandering slowly into the 17th edition of the Draft Day Manifesto. Between the preparation, the location, the traditions, the picking of the order, the actual selections and everything else that goes into it, there's no day more important than draft day. Even if you're in jail.
And so, we're here to once again get you ready for the day that my very first commissioner, Don Smith, would always remark, "It's only the best day of the year."
So sit back. Put your feet up. May I take your drink order? Because we are going to be here a while. As always, the Manifesto has something for everyone. Some basic stuff for beginners, some advanced theory for longtime players and at least one new joke for my editor.
Some things about the Manifesto remain unchanged. It's long, there's some blatant promotion for my New York Times best-selling book "Fantasy Life" (now available as a free app!), and it starts with the secret to winning fantasy football.
At a fundamental level, fantasy football is all about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis. That's it. That simple. Everything leads back to that. Everything.
A year ago, everyone was talking about rookie wide receivers, but no one thought the guy who had missed the preseason with a hammy injury and didn't get on the field until game No. 5 would put up the second-best fantasy season by a rookie wideout in NFL history ... in just 12 games. That a third-string running back from the Broncos would outscore LeSean McCoy; that Joe Flacco would finish outside the top 12 in fantasy scoring among QBs but still score more than Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler. Or that pretty much everyone would outscore a healthy Adrian Peterson.
You can't predict the future. I definitely can't predict the future. No one can predict the future. Those who try to are doomed to fail. So all you can do is play the odds. Put yourself in the best position to win, hope for the best and let the chips fall where they may. Do that and you won't win every single time, but you will more often than not. That's true in life as well.
What follows now are 15 thoughts on how to put yourself in the best possible position to win.